LU LU LIBERTY
- Xochipilli Hevel
- Apr 19
- 7 min read
“Before You Argue About the Price Tag… Look at What’s in the Cart”
(Week 1: Net Fiscal Impact — A Libertarian Counter‑Commentary)
The Democrat Demographer is over here talking about long‑term contributions. The Republican Reporter is over there talking about short‑term costs.
And Lu Lu Libertarians? Honey, we’re standing in the middle of the aisle, holding the receipt up to the fluorescent lights like:
“Is this really what y’all meant to buy?”
Because before we argue about whether immigration costs money or saves money, we need to ask a much simpler question:
What exactly are we spending all this money on?
“Baby, this receipt is longer than a CVS coupon roll.”
Let’s shine the torch‑mic on the basics.
According to the Congressional Budget Office — the folks who tally the nation’s receipts — state and local governments spent $19.3 billion in 2023 on things tied to the immigration surge. (Full Text Publicly Available — CBO.gov)
Now, Lu Lu isn’t here to argue whether that number is too big or too small. We’re here to ask:
“What did we buy?”
Because when you look at the line items, sugar… this isn’t a grocery list. This is a government‑bloat buffet.
We’re talking:
emergency shelters
detention facilities
surveillance systems
border‑state infrastructure
administrative overhead
overlapping agencies
and enough paperwork to wallpaper the Grand Canyon
And that’s before we even get to the federal side.
“Why are we funding a maze when we could build a front door?”
Here’s the part that makes Lu Lu tilt her Lady Liberty tiara and squint:
A whole lot of this spending isn’t going to people. It’s going to systems built around people.
Systems that:
detain
process
surveil
transport
track
backlog
and backlog the backlog
We’re spending billions on managing people instead of moving people through a system efficiently.
Lu Lu’s not saying “spend more” or “spend less.” We’re saying:
“Why is the system so expensive in the first place?”
“Y’all, this is a whole lot of government for a country that claims to love freedom.”
Let’s talk philosophy for a second — the deep‑voiced, serious Lu Lu who steps forward when liberty feels threatened.
Because when you strip the money away from the topic of money, what you’re left with is this:
We’ve built a massive enforcement apparatus
We’ve built a massive surveillance network
We’ve built a massive detention infrastructure
We’ve built a massive bureaucracy to manage all of it
And every year, no matter who’s in charge, the apparatus grows. It never shrinks back.
Lu Lu’s torch‑mic flickers a little when she asks:
“Is this the kind of government we want to keep feeding?”
Not “Is immigration good or bad?” Not “Are immigrants contributing or costing?” But:
“Are we okay with the size, shape, and purpose of the system we’ve built around immigration?”
“We’re arguing about the bill, but nobody’s checking the menu.”
Democrats say immigration pays off long‑term. Republicans say immigration costs money short‑term.
Lu Lu says:
“Why does the system cost this much at all?”
Because the CBO didn’t just tally spending. They showed us what we’re spending it on.
And sugar, it’s not cheap to run:
detention beds
surveillance towers
drones
razor wire
emergency contracts
redundant agencies
and a court backlog that moves slower than molasses in January
(Full Text Publicly Available — CBO.gov)
Lu Lu’s not here to pick a side. We’re here to pick up the receipt and say:
“This is a lot of government for a country that keeps saying it wants less of it.”
Lu Lu’s Bottom Line
Lu Lu Libertarians believe:
1. The real question isn’t ‘How much?’ — it’s ‘On what?’
Before we debate the fiscal impact of immigration, we need to examine the fiscal impact of the system.
2. Government bloat is the unspoken cost driver
Detention, surveillance, and bureaucracy eat money faster than people do.
3. Spending reflects values
If we’re funding walls, cages, and cameras, that says something about us.
4. Crisis spending becomes permanent spending
Emergency appropriations have a way of sticking around.
5. Personal freedom should be the baseline
A smaller, simpler, more transparent system costs less — and respects people more.
Lu Lu isn’t telling you what to think. We’re asking you what you want.
“Is this really the America you meant to fund?”
Torch‑mic drop. Bell‑bottom swish. Fade to funk.
WEEK 1 BIBLIOGRAPHY — NET FISCAL IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION
(With Public Availability Tags)
This bibliography includes government reports, publicly accessible summaries, and news coverage where only partial context is available. Everything is grouped by relevance to Week 1’s theme: taxes paid vs. services used.
1. Congressional Budget Office
(CBO) — Primary Sources
These are the most authoritative, publicly available fiscal analyses. All are fully accessible.
CBO — “The Fiscal Effects of the 2021–2023 Immigration Surge on State and Local Governments” (2025)
(Full Text Publicly Available — CBO.gov) https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60490 (cbo.gov in Bing)
Key content:
$10.1B increase in state/local revenues
$19.3B increase in state/local spending
$9.2B net cost
Education, shelters, border security as main drivers
CBO — “The Budgetary Effects of the 2021–2026 Immigration Surge” (2024)
(Full Text Publicly Available — CBO.gov) https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60028 (cbo.gov in Bing)
Key content:
Federal revenue increases from added workers
Federal mandatory spending increases
High uncertainty in long‑term projections
CBO — “The Foreign-Born Population and Its Effects on the U.S. Economy and Federal Budget” (2020 Overview)
(Full Text Publicly Available — CBO.gov) https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56368 (cbo.gov in Bing)
Key content:
Immigration increases economic output
Wage effects depend on skill complementarity
Legal status strongly affects earnings and tax contributions
2. National Academies of Sciences (NAS) — Long‑Term Fiscal Impact
The NAS study is the gold standard for long‑term fiscal effects. The summary is public; the full report is paywalled.
NAS — “The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration” (2017)
(Summary Publicly Available — NAS.edu) https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/23550/the-economic-and-fiscal-consequences-of-immigration (nap.nationalacademies.org in Bing)
(Full Context Not Publicly Available — Paywalled Book)
Key content (from public summary):
First generation: small net cost
Second generation: strong net fiscal positive
Long‑term contributions outweigh short‑term costs
3. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) — Budget Documents
These provide context for enforcement and processing costs (relevant to Week 3 but foundational here).
DHS Budget-in-Brief (FY 2024)
(Full Text Publicly Available — DHS.gov) https://www.dhs.gov/publication/fy-2024-budget-brief (dhs.gov in Bing)
Key content:
ICE: ~$9.6B
CBP: ~$17B+ (depending on account grouping)
USCIS: ~$865M appropriated + fee-funded operations
4. Government Accountability Office (GAO) — Immigration Cost Oversight
GAO reports are public but often summarize data from agencies whose internal documents are not public.
GAO — “Southwest Border: Information on Federal Spending and Operations”
(Full Text Publicly Available — GAO.gov) https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106000 (gao.gov in Bing)
Key content:
Border operations spending
Staffing levels
Technology and infrastructure costs
GAO — “Immigration Courts: Actions Needed to Reduce Backlogs”
(Full Text Publicly Available — GAO.gov) https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105450 (gao.gov in Bing)
Key content:
Court backlog costs
Staffing shortages
Processing inefficiencies
5. Academic & Think‑Tank Studies
These are widely cited in public debates. Some are fully public; others are paywalled.
Migration Policy Institute (MPI) — Fiscal Impact Analyses
(Full Text Publicly Available — MigrationPolicy.org) https://www.migrationpolicy.org
Key content:
State-level fiscal impacts
Unauthorized immigrant tax contributions
Pew Research Center — Immigration Demographics & Labor Force
(Full Text Publicly Available — PewResearch.org) https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/immigration-migration/ (pewresearch.org in Bing)
Key content:
Demographic trends
Workforce participation
Long-term projections
Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) — Immigrant Tax Contributions
(Full Text Publicly Available — CBPP.org) https://www.cbpp.org
Key content:
Payroll tax contributions
Social Security and Medicare impacts
FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform) — Fiscal Cost Estimates
(Summary Publicly Available — FAIRUS.org) https://www.fairus.org
(Full Context Not Publicly Available — Methodology Not Fully Public)
Key content:
High estimates of state/local costs
Frequently cited in Republican arguments
6. News Coverage
(Context Only)
News articles are copyrighted; only summaries can be used.
Associated Press — Coverage of State/Local Fiscal Strain
(Full Context Not Publicly Available — Copyrighted News Article)
Key content (summarized):
School districts reporting enrollment surges
Cities reporting shelter capacity issues
State budgets adjusting for emergency services
Reuters — Coverage of Federal Budget Debates on Immigration
(Full Context Not Publicly Available — Copyrighted News Article)
Key content (summarized):
Congressional disputes over border funding
Emergency appropriations
Fiscal uncertainty
7. Additional Public Data Sources
IRS — Tax Statistics
(Full Text Publicly Available — IRS.gov) https://www.irs.gov/statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — Workforce Data
(Full Text Publicly Available — BLS.gov) https://www.bls.gov
USCIS — Fee Schedules & Processing Data
(Full Text Publicly Available — USCIS.gov) https://www.uscis.gov
WEEK 1 FACTUAL LANDSCAPE
Net Fiscal Impact of Immigration (Taxes Paid vs. Services Used)
This week’s question is: “What is the net fiscal impact of immigration on U.S. budgets?” We’re looking at revenues vs. costs, and federal vs. state/local, using the most authoritative public sources available.
Below is the distilled factual backbone.
1. State & Local Fiscal Impact (CBO, 2025)
The Congressional Budget Office examined how the 2021–2023 immigration surge affected state and local budgets in 2023.
Direct fiscal effects (2023):
Revenues increased by $10.1 billion, mostly from sales taxes.
Spending increased by $19.3 billion, mainly for:
public K–12 education
shelter and related services
border security
Direct net cost: $9.2 billion (≈0.3% of state/local spending).
Potential broader effects (CBO’s alternative measure):
Potential revenue increase: $18.8 billion
Potential spending increase: $28.6 billion
Potential net cost: $9.8 billion
Who was included in the surge?
CBO categorizes most of the surge as “other foreign nationals” — people who:
were not lawful permanent residents
were not eligible for LPR status
were not admitted temporarily under the INA
may have been paroled or may have lacked permission to remain
2. Federal Fiscal Impact (CBO, 2024)
CBO also analyzed how the 2021–2026 immigration surge affects federal revenues and spending through 2034.
Key points:
The surge adds millions of additional workers to the labor force.
This increases federal revenues (income taxes, payroll taxes).
It also increases mandatory spending (healthcare, income security, etc.).
CBO emphasizes high uncertainty in long‑term projections.
Important distinction:
This report isolates the incremental impact of the surge, not the fiscal impact of all immigrants in the U.S.
3. Long‑Term Economic & Fiscal Effects (CBO, 2020 Overview)
CBO’s broader overview of the foreign‑born population provides essential context.
Labor force effects:
Immigration increases total economic output.
Wage effects depend on whether immigrant skills substitute or complement native‑born workers.
Legal status strongly affects productivity and earnings.
Fiscal effects:
Immigrants affect the federal budget through:
taxes they pay
programs they use
Legal immigrants and naturalized citizens generally have higher earnings and higher tax contributions over time.
Population composition:
~47 million foreign‑born residents in 2018
~75% legally present
~25% unauthorized
Most unauthorized immigrants overstayed visas rather than crossing illegally
4. What These Reports Do Not Cover (Important for framing)
The CBO reports do not provide:
moral judgments
political interpretations
party‑specific conclusions
emotional framings
candidate‑specific commentary
They strictly quantify:
revenues
expenditures
labor force effects
economic output
legal categories
This is exactly the kind of neutral foundation we need before building the partisan narratives.
5. Key Takeaways for Week 1
A. State & local governments saw a net cost in 2023
Direct net cost: $9.2B
Potential net cost: $9.8B
B. Federal government sees mixed effects
More workers → more tax revenue
More people → more mandatory spending
Long‑term projections are uncertain
C. Immigration increases total economic output
But wage effects vary by skill match
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